Dynamic management strategies for plant pollinator networks under anthropogenic warming scenarios

Abstract

The threat of large-scale pollinator decline is escalating globally due to multiple anthropogenic pressures. The physiological impacts of warming scenarios on terrestrial ectotherms often intensify with the increasing rate of warming. These effects also depend on the network structure of plant-pollinator networks and the physiological sensitivities of ectotherms to temperature changes over time. Previous conservation approaches have predominantly focused on applying consistent strategies over extended periods within single ecosystems. However, in practice, conservation funding is typically allocated for shorter durations. To implement effective conservation strategies, it is essential to first assess the health of a network and then devise an appropriate approach for the next 5-10 years. In this study, we present a new approach for designing region-specific dynamic management strategies tailored to individual networks, accounting for anthropogenic stressors like warming scenarios. Our approach uses sampled plant-pollinator network data from various climatic zones and temperature projections from Earth system models under different future scenarios. We found that plant-pollinator networks with low connectance respond more effectively to species-focused management strategies, such as pollinator management. Conversely, networks with high connectance show greater resilience under habitat-focused management approaches. These findings emphasize the need for dynamic assessment and the development of tailored management strategies for each region. This framework provides a strategic plan for conserving plant-pollinator networks by integrating network structure and regional warming scenarios. It bridges the gap between mutualistic network research and practical conservation ecology, offering a comprehensive approach to safeguarding these critical ecosystems.