Towards disentangling environmental costs of India's agricultural trade network

Abstract

India faces a critical challenge in balancing its rising food demand with environmental sustainability. While the nation has achieved agricultural self-sufficiency, the environmental costs of production are escalating, with severe implications for soil, air, and water quality. The increasing reliance on interstate trade to meet growing consumption has further intensified the environmental burden on key agricultural regions. We herein investigate the environmental footprint of India's interstate agricultural trade network by analyzing the gross within-India trade network for cereal crops and disentangle underlying drivers resulting in environmental impacts. Using a recently developed pan-India nutrients data over the last decades, we found that excess nutrient pollution pressures are disproportionately concentrated in major production hubs such as north Indian food-bowl states like Punjab and Haryana, which simultaneously bear the brunt of air pollution (e.g., increased PM2.5 emissions) from agricultural residue burning and soil and water pollution from excess nutrient flows. Along with facing increasing mounting pressure of declining key (ground) water resources, these regions, though pivotal to national food security, face mounting environmental degradation that threatens their long-term integrity and viability. For example, at the current trend, trade-related burdens in these regions would demand over 350 billion cubic meters of (gray)water annually to maintain groundwater-related nutrient levels within safe limits. Our analysis highlights the challenging aspects of internal trade, which is undoubtedly a critical yet largely overlooked factor in developing effective regional air and water quality management strategies for India. We further present viable strategies based on nutrient-focused restructuring of India’s agricultural system, offering significant socio-environmental benefits by reducing nitrogen surplus by 16–24%, water use by 20–40%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 28% (113 Mt CO₂ eq), while enhancing farmer incomes and calorie production. Overall our research underscores the necessity for regional cooperation and targeted interventions to mitigate the environmental costs of agricultural trade while ensuring sustainable food security for India's growing population.